The task
The COVID-19 pandemic showed the need for tools that simulate the spread of disease as close to reality as possible. The solution had to model contact networks between individual agents and be ready for other population diseases in the future.
- Realistic simulation: predictions based on a synthetic population reflecting the demographic, social and economic characteristics of regions.
- Simple deployment: usable in computing centers or the cloud despite demanding computations.
- User-friendly interface: easy data handling and parameter definition.
What we built
We extended the Covasim agent-based model and the Synthpops synthetic population generator from the Institute for Disease Modeling with an interface for importing data in different formats. The system simulates interregional travel and the emergence of new variants. Components run individually or chained together, generate customizable tabular reports, and come with documentation that guides users through operation and data entry.
The result
A comprehensive system for realistic simulation of disease spread. It gives research institutions, healthcare organizations and government agencies a tool to fight pandemics and plan preventive measures — and it can simulate other illnesses from basic parameters such as transmissibility and severity.