The task
A European parcel carrier needed to know whether MyIO could forecast parcel volumes accurately across its network. The proof of concept forecast the first quarter of 2023 retrospectively and checked accuracy at every level of detail.
What we built
A hierarchical, probabilistic forecasting model covering the whole structure of the network: global, countries, regions and individual postcode areas, with a four-week lead time. Model performance was monitored against actual volumes.
The result
- 3.9% average global forecast error
- 80% of forecast errors below 5%
- Forecasts consistent from global level down to postcode